Maximum Covariance Analysis of the Summertime MJO in the Eastern Pacific

Soline Bielli, Dennis L. Hartmann, David J. Lorenz,
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, 98195-1640 USA
[djlorenz@atmos.washington.edu]

Lagged Maximum Covariance Analysis (LMCA) is used to examine the intraseasonal variability of zonal wind, sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean during Northern Hemisphere summer. Results show the eastward propagation of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal at both 850mb and 200mb. The 850mb zonal wind shows a jet-like structure that is associated with enhanced convection near the west coast of Central America and is followed by a period of suppressed convection in the ITCZ farther west. Fractions of covariance explained by the first singular vectors are larger for time lags between 3 and 6 days. LMCA confirms a synergistic relationship between large-scale wind and convection anomalies in that convection anomalies appear to both respond to wind anomalies and act to enhance them. The analysis shows a strong temporal asymmetry in that wind anomalies lead to SST anomalies, but SST anomalies are not followed by strong wind anomalies. Also, convection generally leads to reduced SST off the west coast of Central America, but SST anomalies do not produce comparable subsequent anomalies in convection.