EPIC WEATHER/CLIMATE SYNOPSIS
Date(UTC):
2001/10/02 15:52
Author:
Bates
Submitted at(UTC):
20011002:15:55
CLIMATE CONDITIONS:
In response to the question, what's up with ENSO? Wind burst activity in the west pac was
above normal in spring and early summer resulting in several oceanic
kelvin waves that propagated across the basin. Latest TAO sections of
anoamlies of u-wind, sst, and depth of 20C isotherm (Image 1) show interesting
developments are attached. Strong MJO in west pac in late-aug/early sept
moved out past the dateline with westerly wind bursts all the way to 150W
(gif image attached). This generated another oceanic kelvin wave, but
this one was generated much further east than previous ones (see 20c
isotherm map), but propagation speed of this wave is a bit slower than
prior ones. Meanwhile, the prior waves have suddenly had a pronounced
effect on 20c isotherm in east pac as positive anomalies have rapidly
increased between 100-140W. The latest oceanic kelvin wave should pass
into east pac by late oct - perhaps switching us into warm (el nino)
phase. Most models are going for a modest warm event this winter.
Subsurface thermal anomalies are positive in the east pac, but not as
large as last year. Real question is then...will easterlies weaken in
east pac so warm phase can begin???
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS:
See daily weather report fo an update.
Image 1