EPIC WEATHER DISCUSSION REPORT
Date(UTC):
2001/09/22 15:38
Author:
Bates
Submitted at(UTC):
20010922:15:41
REVIEW OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
The tightly-wound TS Juliette passed south of HUX and north of 10N, 95W last night. At 06Z this morning,
NHC locates Juliette at 13.6N, 98.4W at 50 kts and moving 270 at 17 kts. Juliette is expected to slow a
bit and increase to a hurricane in the next 24 hours - at Sept 23, 06Z she is projected to be at 14.2N,
101.3W at 65 kts and in 72 hours (06Z on 25 Sept) at 18N, 106W at 95 kts. EPIC area will feel the
lingering effects of Juliette the next 24-36 hours as she continues to move west. P3 flew a NHC invest flight
into Juliette yesterday that confirmed the TS...with a few bands of 40-50 kt winds that missed both HUX
and the ships as she passed between us last night...close call.
GENERAL OVERVIEW
This mornings' GOES vis pix shows a complex situation over the EPIC area (Image 1). Several MCCs appear out
ahead to the west of Juliette. A band of clouds, perhaps associated with a wind shear line separating the
Juliette flow from the recovering warm pool flow, is found along 95W from the coast to near 8N.
Finally, clouds associated with the next easterly wave which may effect 95W by Tues/Wed are found in the
western Carribbean and northern Columbia.
DISCUSSION
Good call to not evac planes. Also, thanks to NHC for P3 invest flight to
confirm TS Juliette.
SUMMARY
P3 recalled to Atlantic to fly TD10 no aircraft had to evac. HUX
Sat - no flight
Sun - 95W ocean probe flight
Mon - hard down day
Tues - aerosonde flight to start?? C130 95W
Wed - P3 returns HUX
Image 1