EPIC WEATHER DISCUSSION REPORT


Date(UTC): 2001/09/20 20:31
Author: Bates
Submitted at(UTC): 20010920:21:07

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS FORECAST

Atlantic TD 9 came onshore last night near Hunduras.  It has continued on it's
steady westward track and come into the EPAC early this morning.

GENERAL OVERVIEW

Muchas gracias again to Pete Black HRD for highly valuable info.

All eyes now on remnants of Atl. TD9 now redeveloping and soon to be Juliette
in the east pacific.  GOES vis shows central dense overcast centered over
presumed center near 12N, 90W (Image 1).  Storm is still interacting with land
and I'm concerned about more rapid development as it gets into more open ocean
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  All models show a west to west-northwest track
roughly parallel to Mexican coast over the next 72 hours (Image 2), but differ 
on speed.  Looks like stormy weather here next 24-48 hours with Juliette
increasing from tropical storm to near hurricane intensity as it passes just
south of us.  SHIPS intensity forecast is for 44 kts at 24 hr, 60 kts at 36 hr,
and 77 kts at 48 hrs.

DISCUSSION

Looks like we should get aircraft out of here before noon tomorrow for safety.
They should be able to get back in sunday pm if airport is not too damaged here.

Ships look to be in good shape with only minor bad weather as storm passes
to the north of them between 13-15 N at 95W.

SUMMARY


Thurs - ITCZ flight both a/c
Fri - aircraft at alternate locations tbd
Fri/Sat - hurricane party in Huatulco
Sun - a/c return HUX?


Image 1
Image 2