EPIC WEATHER DISCUSSION REPORT


Date(UTC): 2001/09/14 17:52
Author: Bates
Submitted at(UTC): 20010914:18:03

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS FORECAST

Problems with laptop the past 2 days so no report, but not much weather.  Convective
activity has been supressed in the wake of TS Ivo and as dry air has
propaged in from east.  ITCZ mission yesterday but very weak cb only north
of ITCZ at 8N.  Perhaps skin SST diurnal layer as weak winds and lots of sun.

GENERAL OVERVIEW

More dry air continuing to propagate in from east as depicted on PW
hovmoller for 5-15N (Image 1).  This is keeping convective activity
quite supressed with only isolated cb north of ITCZ.  ITCZ is becoming
a bit more active from central America to about 87W (Image 2).  No other
large scale features evident.

DISCUSSION

Expect supressed conditions to continue next few days.  MJO has moved out to
180-160W and may propagate over EPAC in 10-14 days.

SUMMARY

ITCZ mission ocean probes went well yesterday
Fri - C130 95W mission; P3 50 hr inspection
Sat - no flights - Mexican independence day
Sun - TBD

Image 1
Image 2