EPIC WEATHER/CLIMATE SYNOPSIS

CLIMATE CONDITIONS:

Conditions remain very much near normal in the east Pacific for this time of the year.  
SSTs remain slightly warmer than normal in the western Caribbean and east Pacific 
warm pool.  Convective activity in the west Pacific continues above normal for this time 
of the year.  There are both an MJO and easterly Kelvin wave apparent in the ORL 
anomaly data (Figure 1).  The easterly atmospheric Kelvin wave should propagate over the EPIC 
flight operations area (95W) in about 2 weeks, enhancing convection at that time (about 
September 11 or so).  We should be in the negative phase, suppressing convection, a 
week later.

SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS:

Actual convective conditions will depend on the superposition of the easterly 
atmospheric Kelvin wave with the westward propagating 5-day African waves.  The east 
Pacific is relatively active now, with several vorticity centers along 10N, one at 100W, 
one at 93W and another at 88W (Figure 2).  The ITCZ has been centered along 7-8N at 95W.  When 
strong African waves pass, however, they have an 'inverted-V' shape in convection and 
the convection along 95W shows a rapid transition to 10N and decrease at 7-8N.  After 
the waves pass, the convection becomes re-established at 7-8N (Figure 3).  We'll have to keep a 
close watch on this behavior to ensure we get the Ron Brown positioned appropriately.